Experts are nervous about a possible “November 2018” scenario. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin (BTC) faces another 50% drop.
Could Bitcoin drop another 50%?
The macroeconomic environment is causing the Bitcoin price to struggle under difficult conditions. Now, many experts claim that the market will crash again in November 2018. Bitcoin again broke the $19,000 resistance after falling to $18,845.59 amid these concerns. Michael van de Poppe, CEO of Eight Global and well-known analyst, states that Bitcoin is in the November 2018 digits.
Bitcoin had experienced a drop of about 37% on this date. It wiped out $70 billion from its market capitalization in a very short space of time. In the last days of November 2018, its loss reached 50%. Analysts are alarmed that the negative scenario for Bitcoin price may now reoccur.
Many analysts, including Florian Grummes, predict that Bitcoin will drop to $10,000. In the worst case, he is alarmed that BTC could potentially drop to $6,000.
Why is Bitcoin quiet?
Falcon macroeconomic conditions are one of the main reasons for the Bitcoin price drop. Central banks continue to raise interest rates due to rising inflation. The war between Russia and Ukraine further aggravates the situation. In addition, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to cut the supply in order to raise oil prices. The Biden administration claims that OPEC+ took its decision because of the basis it gave to Russia. According to reports, OPEC’s decision may cause global oil prices to rise even more.
Also, the US Consumer Price Index showed economic inflation of 8%. The Fed believes that a highly restrictive monetary policy will be necessary to keep inflation under control until 2024. However, the Fed is currently failing in its effort with inflation. The rate hike four times in a row did not yield any results. As a result, recession concerns are also negatively affecting the cryptocurrency market.
How likely is a fall?
Analysts have different perspectives on what BTC will do next. Some say that we have been in a bear market for 124 days since BTC traded at $30,000, despite on-chain data saying otherwise. As a result, according to the 50% rule, BTC could see the bottom at $15,000 before experiencing a strong bull market.
In the middle, the team of analysts at Messari reported some interesting market observations. For example, Bitcoin may be dropping its correlation with the S&P500. Second, while Bitcoin’s price action has been sideways since the last week of September, it has continued to gain strength.
The Messari analysis also looked at Bitcoin’s unusually low volatility. Bitcoin has extremely volatile price movements. That’s why his latest performance is unusual. Low volatility could be a sign that the bears are losing their strength. These observations highlight a ‘quiet before the storm’ type of situation. Not that, Koindeks.comAnalysts like Mike McGlone, who you follow on ., say that $100,000 is close.