Hedge fund manager Mark Yusko shared his predictions for the next Bitcoin rally. The cryptocurrency billionaire is seeing a recent bull run, independent of the dire macroeconomic picture.
The next cryptocurrency rally is on this date
According to Mark Yusko, the next Bitcoin rally will start in the second quarter of 2023. The cryptocurrency billionaire says this rally will use Bitcoin halving as fuel. Bitcoin’s block rewards are halved every four years. The halving setup has historically been a valuable catalyst for crypto rallies. The next halving will likely occur in early 2024. The most recent was in May 2020.
“Usually the market assumes this for up to about nine months,” Yusko said in a recent interview. According to the hedge fund manager, the halving will move Bitcoin to $100,000 “according to the math stuff.” The crypto billionaire says Bitcoin will achieve even more than that. In the interview, he explains why the halving will cause the rally:
If block rewards halve from 6.25 to 3.125, the price needs to double for miners to continue making money.
Adverse macroeconomic conditions will not interfere with the rally
Yusko thinks the rally will happen despite the negative macroeconomic picture dominated by high interest rates and slow growth. This is because, according to Yusko, cryptocurrencies will eventually prove to be unconnected with the equity markets. In his own words:
Traditional markets are driven by economic growth, Fed policies, and inflation. Crypto, on the other hand, is driven by technology itself.
Bitcoin halving cycles and the cryptocurrency market
The halving cryptocurrency market is an extremely valuable event. Because as Bitcoin approaches its limited supply, it indicates another decrease in the rate of new coins produced. The maximum supply of Bitcoin is 21 million. As of the end of August 2022, there are approximately 19.1 million bitcoins in circulation. There are about 1.9 million left to be set free through mining rewards.
Block rewards in 2009 were 50 Bitcoins. It became 25 after the first halving, and then 12.5. It then dropped to 6.25 Bitcoins per block as of May 11, 2020. In another context; This can be explained by the fact that the measure of gold mined from the earth is halved every four years. The chart below shows the route Bitcoin took in terms of price after halving cycles.
As a result, the halving theory basically works in the following form:
The reward is halved → half the inflation → lower supply → higher demand → higher price → as the price of Bitcoin rises in the process, the miners’ incentive still remains regardless of the smaller rewards.
Koindeks.com As you follow, Bitcoin is currently trading above $ 20,500. After six weeks of calm, it finally reached local peaks in volume.